Interview with Danish handicapper Kjaer, who made a 14-game win streak in 2020
Kjaer is one of the best in Scandinavian soccer betting tips. He post his predictions on twitter.
I am a Danish bettor who likes to use my knowledge to take away money from the bookmakers. My bets are mainly within Scandinavia, unless I get some incredible info that would be dumb not to react to.
How did you come to sports betting?
It started when I was 18 years old (can’t bet legally before that), and it started because I had a close friend whom already did betting stuff, and we just wanted to have some fun while trying to win money
How much time did it take you to become a sharp bettor?
I personally wouldn’t call myself a sharp bettor in any way. The primary goal of betting is still to have fun. If I wasn’t having fun while either researching or placing bets, then I wouldn’t be doing it. The money, the followers, the attention is far from the primary goal, but it’s always nice to have as an extra bonus.
Can you explain how to beat the line for dummies?
Be smarter than the bookie. Often we see bookies not react to injured or suspended players till the lineups are revealed. There’s a massive chance to get an advantage there. Other than that, try to become very clever on one league, rather than semi-clever on 3 leagues. The bookies does not have an expert sitting on every match, and they for sure do not always get the price right. That’s where you can beat the line. Be clever.
What is your strategy? What tools/sites do you use?
I scout matches usually 1-2 weeks in advance. I go through every game the two top leagues in Norway and Sweden, and then ALL matches that the bookies offers in Denmark. I set alerts through oddsportal for the matches I like, and if they exceed the minimum price I’ve set, I go through the news again, and then place a bet.
Do you sell your tips?
I am currently not selling my tips. The goal has never been to go private, but I cannot assure you that it won’t happen in the future. I do not have any offers though, and I will not go private alone.
How much money can a pro bettor make in Denmark? Is it possible to be a full-time bettor?
It is certainly possible. If you have info on the low division matches, there’s endless of good bets to be taken.
3 best punters you know and 3 world’s best bookies?
The 3 best punters are: @PDLBets, @MaccasValueBets and then @SOBettor can get the third place. I also want to make @bet_bonzana on a “Ones to watch” list. Great recent results from that man.
The 3 bets bookies are Bet365 due to their easy website design and market size, Kambi bookies (888sport, Unibet, Mrgreen) because they are clueless about odds, and then I really like Coolbet, but I think Marathon has better prices than they do.
You had 14 bets without a loss. Is it your best betting achievement?
I wouldn’t say it is my best betting achievement cos I have done it before, and I have had longer streak than that, but it is pretty decent. Everyone can be lucky and get 14 in a row though. I would say the most satisfying win, is when you see all the other punters betting on a Danish match, then betting on the opposite, and winning.. Feels great when knowledge is better than looking at stats and such.
Is it possible to be a profitable bettor without at least basic knowledge of probability theory relying just on the exceptional understating of particular sports?
Technically you can be a profitable bettor by being insanely lucky. But you really should have basic knowledge of probability theory. What is the point of having knowledge if you do not know whether or not those prices reflect the same knowledge.
What are basic mistakes in betting you can warn newcomers against?
Don’t bet on matches based on looking at the standings. There is so much more to a match than position in the league.
What do you think about xG-based betting strategies?
I do not comment too much on others betting strategies. If xG-based bettors can profit from it, good for them!
From time to time I see news about match-fixing in Scandinavia, like Jores Okore in Denmark or Sweden low leagues during lockdown. Can you describe the situation with match-fixing in Scandinavia? Do you take this fact into account making your tips?
In the last 2 years we’ve probably had two cases of match-fixing. We saw it with Jores Okore and we saw it with SønderjyskE. None of the cases ended with anyone being judged though. In SønderjyskEs defence, they intentionally lost a match because of the league-format, but that has been changed now. I do not think there is a lot of match-fixing though. Not more than in other leagues at least. I do not take match-fixing into account making my tips at all.
How do you decide how many units to bet on a particular tip
I am on a 1-5 unit. My default is 2u. Most livebets are 1u. I rarely do other than 2u bets though. I sometimes do 3u, but then divide in 2u and 1u. If I do more than 2u it is because I have some extra knowledge, that I feel like the bookie hasn’t accounted for. If I do 1u on a prematch it is because I am unsure of my information.
Are there any differences between Scandinavian football and other leagues? Why don’t you extend your strategy to other leagues?
Not a huge difference. I like to stay local though. All the football news just comes to me, and I don’t have to look it up. It’s also a lot easier for me to gain information, as I speak those languages.
How do you evaluate team chances? Like stats models, injuries, info from the inside or something else. What method do you use?
I use stats a bit, to get an idea of how a certain team has been performing. They might have lost a match 1-2, but the stats can indicate that they should’ve won. I check injuries, through the teams website, as well as suspicious substitutions in previous matches, and I always check suspensions too. It is very rare I have inside info. I just research more than the bookie does, and that gives me an edge on them.
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